Climate Law & Policy Project
Protecting the human right to a safe climate.
Protecting the human right to a safe climate.
CLPP has sea ice on its mind. Figures released today show that Arctic Ocean sea ice is at its third lowest level ever for the month of July—with ice extent 97,000 square miles less than 2008 and nearly half a million miles below the long-term average. Sea ice declined last month at roughly the same rate it did in 2007, when the record low sea ice shattered the previous record and called international attention to the accelerating warming in the Arctic. Whether the sea ice will set a new record low when it reaches its summer minimum in September is less important than the increasing evidence that 2007 wasn’t a fluke—for the third year in a row, we’re witnessing declines of Arctic sea ice that would have been unthinkable even a few years ago. In April 2007, most scientists believed that at least some summer sea ice would survive through 2100; now many scientists believe we could have an ice-free Arctic within the next five years. Meanwhile, a new study in the journal Nature (E. Dorrepall et al., 30 July 2009) indicates that a warming Arctic may release greenhouse gases frozen in the Arctic tundra at higher rates than previously thought. The melting of both land and sea in the Arctic threatens to create vicious climate feedbacks that could lead to runaway climate change.
The need for immediate action to avert this risk is calling increasing attention to fast-acting, short-lived greenhouse gases like “black carbon”. Black carbon, also known as soot, is second only to carbon dioxide in its global warming impact. But while carbon dioxide molecules linger in the atmosphere for centuries, the impact of black carbon is measured in weeks, making it possible to achieve real global warming reductions in the short-term, even as we make the essential transition away from fossil fuels. It’s by no means a sure thing, and it’s no excuse for inaction or half-measures on CO2 and other greenhouse gases. But tackling black carbon and other fast-acting pollutants could buy us just a little of something that we’re increasingly running out of: time.